Kevin Warsh is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term. As of September 20, 2026, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh has raised rates instead of cutting them. On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee increased the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% to 4.00%.
The Fed's latest projections point in the same direction. They do not make an immediate cut the central expectation.
| Question | Current indication |
|---|---|
| Will Warsh cut rates at the next meeting? | Not the base case |
| Current federal funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Fed median year-end rate projection for 2026 | 4.1% |
| Fed median year-end rate projection for 2027 | 4.1% |
| Fed median year-end rate projection for 2028 | 3.9% |
| Next scheduled FOMC meeting | October 27 to 28, 2026 |
These projections are not promises. They do suggest that interest rates may stay high, or move higher, before the Fed begins cutting them.
Why Kevin Warsh is unlikely to cut rates soon
Inflation remains too high for immediate easing
The Federal Reserve said on September 16 that inflation remains elevated. It raised rates to support a return to the Fed's 2% inflation target. The Fed also described economic activity as solid, domestic spending as resilient and unemployment as relatively stable.
That combination makes a quick rate cut hard to justify. The Fed usually needs clear evidence that inflation is falling on a lasting basis, or that the labor market is weakening sharply, before lowering borrowing costs.
Warsh has emphasized price stability
In testimony to Congress in July, Kevin Warsh said the Federal Reserve had "no tolerance" for persistently elevated inflation. He also said the central bank remained committed to restoring price stability, while economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and the labor market remained broadly stable.
At the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, 2026, Warsh indicated that more rate increases could be necessary if inflation was not moving toward 2% clearly and quickly enough.
That is a case for keeping policy tight, not for cutting rates soon.
Could Kevin Warsh lower interest rates later?
Yes. The timing will depend on economic data rather than a fixed schedule.
Warsh could support lower rates if:
- Inflation moves convincingly toward 2%.
- Employment and wage growth weaken sharply.
- Consumer spending slows.
- Economic growth deteriorates.
- Financial conditions become too restrictive.
The Fed's September projections show the median federal funds rate falling from 4.1% in 2027 to 3.9% in 2028 and 3.6% in 2029. That leaves room for rate cuts later, but it does not point to a large cutting cycle in the near term.
Does Kevin Warsh decide interest rates by himself?
No. The Federal Open Market Committee makes the decision. Warsh chairs the FOMC and has considerable influence over its discussions and public messaging, but he cannot order the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
The September 16 increase passed by a 12 to 0 vote. That result shows that the decision had support across the committee rather than coming from the chair alone.
What this means for borrowers and savers
Households should not plan on a quick drop in borrowing costs.
- Credit cards and variable-rate loans: These may remain expensive while the federal funds rate stays high.
- Savings accounts and money-market funds: Their yields may remain attractive compared with the near-zero-rate period.
- Fixed mortgage rates: These do not move one-for-one with the federal funds rate. Inflation expectations, Treasury yields and bond-market conditions also affect them.
- Long-term bonds: Warsh's approach to inflation and the Fed's credibility can affect longer-term yields, even if the Fed later cuts its short-term policy rate.
Bottom line
For the near term, households and markets should plan for elevated interest rates. A cut becomes more plausible if inflation moves clearly toward 2% or the labor market weakens. Until that happens, holding rates high or raising them again is a more realistic expectation than an immediate cut.